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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a peace deal developed with American diplomats could be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to submit the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that the American legislature was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a complete package of documents could be prepared “imminently.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, leading to summit-level talks possibly this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them concern binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” the president commented to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring maritime security, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not proposing these actions would constitute guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Russian government said it had not seen the details of the proposals on security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept troops from NATO member states operating in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. A key demand centers on Ukraine ceding the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russian troops would not advance, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Russia has indicated it could use police and national guard units rather than the army in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will proceed on the land question. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone could be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” commented the president, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he added.